A new analysis attempts to put a dollar figure on the cumulative economic impact of the federal workforce changes that have unfolded since January 2025, and the number is substantial.
The Partnership for Public Service, a nonpartisan good government organization that has been publicly critical of the administration’s approach to federal workforce changes, released the findings through its Federal Harms Tracker. The group acknowledges its estimates are conservative and that not all potential costs are known or measurable at this time.
With that context in mind, here is what the data shows.
The two major cost categories
The analysis breaks costs into two broad areas: workforce-related expenses and the economic impact of terminated federal grants.
On the workforce changes side, the single largest driver isn’t layoffs; it’s employee disengagement. Using a Gallup finding that disengaged employees cost organizations roughly 34% of their annual salary, and applying a 68% disengagement rate drawn from the Partnership’s own 2025 survey of federal workers, researchers put the productivity cost at approximately $53.2 billion. It is worth noting that the underlying Gallup research dates to 2017, and the disengagement rate is drawn from the Partnership’s survey rather than OPM’s standard Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey, which was not conducted in 2025.
Other workforce figures in the analysis include:
- $4.5 billion paid to approximately 137,000 employees who participated in the deferred resignation program, receiving salary and benefits while not working
- $763.9 million in severance pay for more than 10,000 employees separated through reductions in force
- $443.9 million in administrative leave costs for probationary employees who were fired, had their terminations temporarily blocked by courts, and were ultimately removed
- $152.3 million for CFPB employees placed on extended administrative leave while the administration’s attempt to shut down the agency played out in court
- $12.1 million in administrative costs tied to rehiring employees after 25,747 instances of termination and reinstatement
The grant termination numbers
The second major cost category covers terminated federal grants. These figures rest on peer-reviewed research finding that every dollar invested in federal scientific research generates approximately $2.56 in economic activity, a multiplier the researchers applied to the remaining unspent funds from terminated grants.
By that calculation, the economic losses include:
- $72.8 billion from terminated EPA grants
- $17.8 billion from terminated CDC grants
- $1.8 billion from terminated NSF grants
- $1.3 billion from terminated NIH grants
- $996 million from terminated SAMHSA grants
The shutdown’s contribution
The analysis also incorporates a $11 billion loss to real GDP from the six-week government shutdown that ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025. That figure comes directly from the Congressional Budget Office and represents hours not worked by furloughed federal employees, a loss the CBO describes as unrecoverable even after operations resumed.
A brief note on the analysis
The Federal Harms Tracker reflects a perspective that is generally supportive of the federal workforce and frames recent policy and federal workforce changes through that lens. That context is worth keeping in mind when interpreting the findings.
At the same time, many of the underlying estimates draw on independently verifiable sources, including Congressional Budget Office data, OPM payroll figures, and peer-reviewed research.
